June 2015 Housing Starts in Canada
OTTAWA, July 9, 2015 — The trend measure of housing starts in Canada was 183,959 units in June compared to 179,908 in May, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.
“The trend in housing starts increased this month as multiple starts trended upward, offsetting a downward trend in single-detached home starts,” said Bob Dugan, CMHC’s Chief Economist. “The rise in the trend of multiple starts reflects a 53% increase in seasonally adjusted multiple starts from February to June 2015. Seasonally adjusted multiple starts are at their highest level since September 2012, but are expected to moderate over the coming months.”
CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of the state of Canada’s housing market. In some situations analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as they are largely driven by the multi-unit segment of the market which can vary significantly from one month to the next.
The standalone monthly SAAR was 202,818 units in June, up from 196,981 units in May. The SAAR of urban starts increased by 3.2 per cent in June to 188,720 units. Multi-unit urban starts increased by 3.7 per cent to 130,933 units in June, while the single-detached urban starts segment increased by 2.0 per cent to 57,787 units.
In June, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts increased in British Columbia, Québec, the Prairies and Atlantic Canada, while it decreased in Ontario.
Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 14,098 units.
As Canada’s authority on housing, CMHC contributes to the stability of the housing market and financial system, provides support for Canadians in housing need, and offers objective housing research and information to Canadian governments, consumers and the housing industry.
1 The trend is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR). By removing seasonal ups and downs, seasonal adjustment allows for a comparison from one season to the next and from one month to the next. Reporting monthly figures at annual rates indicates the annual level of starts that would be obtained if the monthly pace was maintained for 12 months. This facilitates comparison of the current pace of activity to annual forecasts as well as to historical annual levels.
2 CMHC estimates the level of starts in centres with a population of less than 10,000 for each of the three months of the quarter, at the beginning of each quarter. During the last month of the quarter, CMHC conducts the survey in these centres and revises the estimate.
3 Urban centres with a population of 10,000 and over.